It is not the first time I have commented on the up and coming water shortage in many areas of California, Nevada and other Western States - but someone, sometime has to address it with less than a cursory reference. It will not be long before there will be water wars among the States, threatened already by Las Vegas recently, as the Colorado River becomes so depleted and so over used and abused, multiple cities and counties are soon to be really hurting. Overbuilding and expansion of city populations in areas that have already been flagged for future problems, continue and it is as if the local governments have blinders on, in their efforts to get more tax revenue. The Desert Resort area of Coachella Valley (Palm Springs and all its sister cities) have relied on the aquifer under the valley floor, and as it depletes at an alarming rate and the water level drops dangerously low, there seem no interest in what might occur within a decade. Las Vegas is so overbuilt, now that we are in a real estate market downturn, the number of foreclosures will soon be a pandemic in that area. When the market stabilizes, if this overbuilding starts again, it will be a precursor to a calamity.
In the Coachella Valley, there should be a moratorium on golf course construction, conversion of current courses to recycled water and no summer reseeding and upkeep for the many courses in private clubs where there are less than 5% of the residents in residence, during the hottest summer months. No future residence building should allow any grass landscaping, with the availability of seemingly lush desert desertscapes to replace water guzzling lawns. Current lawn owners should be convinced to take out the lawns and replace them with desertscapes. Pools should be required to have pool covers in the summer months. Pool refilling should be restricted to once a year. Homes and businesses that have leaking irrigations systems that leave floods of water running for blocks, down local gutters should be cited and required to stop the waste overflow. Its not time to shrug this off - it is time to act and act very soon. City councils are put on notice.
If you have a reasonable fixed rate home mortgage and you are worried about value - Don't !
If you have a strange adjustable rate program or interest only with an up and coming adjustable rate mortgage - then it is time to do something about it NOW !
The Market is cyclical. It has been cyclical for decades and will remain cyclical. The values always end up rising higher than the last high value market - so in most markets, if you have a normal, sustainable mortgage program and it is fixed, you can just sit back and not worry if your (say) $450,000 residence drops to $320,000 or lower, sit back and enjoy the home, do little fix ups and upgrading, and be patient. Wait for the next upturn in the market cycle - it will come and again there will be an influx of new real estate agents to try to get you to sell, and lenders trying to get you to use your equity to buy the latest Hummer or sailboat, send your mother in law off on a world cruise or add a pool to the back yard.
This is going to be a severe downturn - but the majority of home owners who didn't buy homes already out of range of their moderate pocketbooks and income - with crazy interest only or strange adjustable rates - and those who didn't take the bait and refi up to their absolute limit of equity - they will survive with flying colors if they just relax, sit back and ride out the mortgage storm.
There will not be help for those who jumped on the home buying band wagon without adequate income to sustain the purchases. They need to move on and get their acts together for a later foray into home ownership, when their income is better. It doesn't help to just dump the houses and walk away from the mortgages. It should be done with some thought, help from the lenders and a plan to make the glitch on their credit less severe, so future plans may one day include home ownership again.
Most lenders do not want to take back your houses - so contact them long before it is "too late" and the trustee sale is next week. It is amazing how much most lenders will do to try to help you keep your house, if there really is a way you can, within reason. It won't hurt to ask - so contact your mortgage holder now - not when it is too late.
If you are wanting to sell your home in today's Market - don't waste your time or that of an agent by putting it on the Market for what it might have been worth a year ago. You have to accept the down-turn in the market and market-values, and only those homes priced just below the then current market will have an inkling of a chance to sell in 2008. If you are an investor and got caught up in rehabbing a house in the top of the market curve, get it rented out for 12 to 18 months minimum, and recoup at least the mortgage payments - or sell at a loss and learn from the mistake, for the next cycle.
Appraisals throughout the Coachella Valley from palm Springs to Thermal and some high desert cities. Help and advice - am here to answer reasonable questions. Barry Noble barry@FastAppraisalValue.com State Of CA licensed Appraiser and Broker.
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